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How projections work
Every collection gets a projected score for the week, like projected points in fantasy football, worked out only from FloorFeed's own data. You see it on My Team (each slot and the lineup's total), in Matchup (each starter, each team, and the chance to win), in Collections and on each collection card. It's the same simple sum for everyone, so you can check it.
- Form
- The average of its game log's last 6 weeks (the points it would have scored), with the newest week counting most (6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1). With few weeks of data it's blended with a typical week for its position: 15 for a blue chip, 9 for a small cap. Two weeks of its own count for half, six weeks for three quarters, and a collection with no history projects as a typical one.
- Breakouts
- A hot hand: 2 points for each day it made the Breakouts list in the last 14 days, 6 at most.
- Floor Calls
- Members' open calls on it: all Over adds 3, all Under takes 3, a split lands in between.
- Slots
- That sum is its base. In a lineup it's multiplied like the points: a Captain x2, a Blue chip x1, a Small cap x1.5. The bench projects 0 until you swap it in. A collection that can't play this week projects 0.
- During the week
- A starter's projection is its live points so far plus its base projection for the share of the week still to play, so it ends at its real score. A team's projection adds up its starters and any Floor Calls points it has already made.
- Chance to win
- Each team's total is treated as a bell curve around its projection, as wide as its collections' weekly scores have swung. The further ahead, and the less of the week left, the closer to 100%.
Tip: A projection is a guide, not a promise: it can't see a whale sweeping the floor tomorrow. Use it to set a lineup, then check each collection's card for why.